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He has a 2.17 ERA in six starts against them this season, which is high compared with his 1.60 ERA in 10 career starts. The way Maddon and the Cubs love their matchups, Quintana seems like a gimme as the Game 1 starter if it’s the Brewers. But not so fast. There are some other numbers working here. Such as Jon Lester ’s 2.31 ERA in two starts against the Brewers this season. More importantly, there’s Lester’s 1.80 career ERA in four NLDS games (three starts). Throwing Lester in Game 1 at Wrigley Field says, “Here’s our best. Dare ya.” Kyle Hendricks posted a 3.91 ERA in four starts against the Brewers this season, but his one start in Milwaukee left him with a 7.20 ERA. Yeah, that’s a small sample size, but his three starts against the Brewers at Wrigley resulted in a 3.00 ERA. Yeah, that’s the way I can see it going. You could argue Hamels in Game 3 based on his quality start in Milwaukee this month and his gaudy Cubs ERA of 1.57 before the damage the Diamondbacks’ split squad did Wednesday night.

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